What ridings would Kenney be targetting - II?
Following on yesterday's post which examined claims made in recent coverage of the Conservative Party's ethnic outreach campaign led by Calgary Southeast, AB M.P. Jason Kenney, today we use the recently released 2006 Census Data by Federal Electoral District (i.e., federal riding) to look at which ridings rate highly in the ethnic groups said to be the most assiduously courted in Kenney's charm offensive.
David Akin has already examined the percentage concentration of certain ethnic communities by Census Metropolitan Area (i.e., municipality, more or less). But today we're looking by federal riding, in search of the likely target ridings being alluded to in a number of media reports, including this past Monday's Hill Times and the Toronto Star from last February 23.
The strategy first came to light back in the fall of 2007 after a resident in the Ontario riding of Thornhill complained to Liberal M.P. about a greeting card personally mailed to them by the Prime Minister. The Globe and Mail's Daniel LeBlanc was able to obtain a copy of the Conservatives' strategy document [very large PDF file] as presented to their Election Training Conference and covered it in a front-page story on October 16, 2007. [Owing to my current crappy dialup service, I have not been able to review the PDF file for this post, however.]
Another journalist to report on that strategy was the Calgary Herald's Ottawa columnist, Don Martin. In a column for the National Post on February 19, 2008, he wrote:
Tonda MacCharles' list from the Toronto Star four days later was "Koreans, Chinese (more often than not Cantonese-speaking émigrés from Hong Kong), Jews, South Asians, Persians, Poles, Jamaicans, Filipinos, and Vietnamese".
The 2006 Census riding profiles do not report separate numbers for Italians, Jamaicans, Persians, or Poles (the data is collected and available for purchase, however). Also no data was collected on religious affiliation in 2006, although we do have 2001 data available as a substitute. Finally, I have used the data collected for Southeast Asians as a proxy for Vietnamese.
For a methodology, I examined the 2006 Census Data (or 2001 for the categories "Jewish" and "Hindu") for the 50 top ridings in each category (raw numbers, not percent of the riding), rolled them up together, eliminated the ridings that were either solidly Conservative for many elections (i.e., in Alberta), or core urban ridings with solid Lib-NDP or NDP-Lib contests for most of the previous elections. What remains are the 70 ridings found below. They are sorted by province, and then in descending order from greatest raw number of target voters to least.
Clearly some will be bigger targets than others, whether for numeric reasons, incumbency, the number of viable parties competing in the riding, local organization, candidate strength, and other relevant issues. Notice also that some of the ridings on the list are currently held by Conservatives, in which case the ethnic outreach strategy would be expected to help hold the seat.
[Remember that ridings are classified here according to who won them in 2006, so Halton, ON appears as a Conservative riding even though Garth Turner has since crossed to the Liberals, Mississauga – Streetsville, ON appears as a Liberal riding even though Wajid Khan has since crossed to the Conservatives, and Vancouver Kingsway similarly shows Liberal.]
I do not claim that every seat on the above list is or ought to be a target of the Conservatives' ethnic outreach strategy. However, they will no doubt be measuring the success of their strategy on the basis of advances or retreats in their vote in seats such as these.
It is a little ironic, and worth noting, that Kenney's own riding of Calgary Southeast, AB does not rank in the top 50 in any of these categories, and is #120/308 in the percentage of visible minority residents.
David Akin has already examined the percentage concentration of certain ethnic communities by Census Metropolitan Area (i.e., municipality, more or less). But today we're looking by federal riding, in search of the likely target ridings being alluded to in a number of media reports, including this past Monday's Hill Times and the Toronto Star from last February 23.
The strategy first came to light back in the fall of 2007 after a resident in the Ontario riding of Thornhill complained to Liberal M.P. about a greeting card personally mailed to them by the Prime Minister. The Globe and Mail's Daniel LeBlanc was able to obtain a copy of the Conservatives' strategy document [very large PDF file] as presented to their Election Training Conference and covered it in a front-page story on October 16, 2007. [Owing to my current crappy dialup service, I have not been able to review the PDF file for this post, however.]
Another journalist to report on that strategy was the Calgary Herald's Ottawa columnist, Don Martin. In a column for the National Post on February 19, 2008, he wrote:
Ethnic voters matter, now more than ever. And faced with the possibility of a race tightening into a few dozen key riding showdowns, racial profiling and cultural targeting are becoming intense platform, partisan and policy considerations....
The Conservatives' strategy is simple -- any riding they lost by less than 5% of the vote and which has an ethnic electoral bloc that can swing the seat will get special attention....
Roughly 40 swing ridings have decisive ethnic populations. And if the names are any indication, the Conservatives will contest more than 30 ridings with visible minority candidates on their ballot. (The Liberals could not provide comparable information.)
Sources admit the Conservatives are selective. Chinese, Koreans, Hindus, Jews, Persians, Italians and Vietnamese are top priorities. But Muslims and Sikhs? Well, not so much.
Tonda MacCharles' list from the Toronto Star four days later was "Koreans, Chinese (more often than not Cantonese-speaking émigrés from Hong Kong), Jews, South Asians, Persians, Poles, Jamaicans, Filipinos, and Vietnamese".
The 2006 Census riding profiles do not report separate numbers for Italians, Jamaicans, Persians, or Poles (the data is collected and available for purchase, however). Also no data was collected on religious affiliation in 2006, although we do have 2001 data available as a substitute. Finally, I have used the data collected for Southeast Asians as a proxy for Vietnamese.
For a methodology, I examined the 2006 Census Data (or 2001 for the categories "Jewish" and "Hindu") for the 50 top ridings in each category (raw numbers, not percent of the riding), rolled them up together, eliminated the ridings that were either solidly Conservative for many elections (i.e., in Alberta), or core urban ridings with solid Lib-NDP or NDP-Lib contests for most of the previous elections. What remains are the 70 ridings found below. They are sorted by province, and then in descending order from greatest raw number of target voters to least.
Clearly some will be bigger targets than others, whether for numeric reasons, incumbency, the number of viable parties competing in the riding, local organization, candidate strength, and other relevant issues. Notice also that some of the ridings on the list are currently held by Conservatives, in which case the ethnic outreach strategy would be expected to help hold the seat.
[Remember that ridings are classified here according to who won them in 2006, so Halton, ON appears as a Conservative riding even though Garth Turner has since crossed to the Liberals, Mississauga – Streetsville, ON appears as a Liberal riding even though Wajid Khan has since crossed to the Conservatives, and Vancouver Kingsway similarly shows Liberal.]
| Cont | Rid | Marg | Sth Asia | Chin | Jwsh | Fili | Hind | SE Asia | Kor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib-Cons | Mount Royal, QC | 17627 47.7% | 5960 6.1% | 3205 3.3% | 34930 36.3% | 8875 9.2% | 4315 4.5% | 2985 3.1% | 650 0.7% |
| Lib-BQ | Saint-Laurent – Cartierville, QC | 19220 45.3% | 6655 6.2% | 6825 6.4% | 8195 8.2% | 980 0.9% | 2000 2.0% | 4040 3.8% | 115 0.1% |
| Lib-Cons | Pierrefonds – Dollard, QC | 13375 28.0% | 8125 7.8% | 2610 2.5% | 11005 10.8% | 2340 2.2% | 2095 2.1% | 880 0.8% | 80 0.1% |
| BQ-Lib | Papineau, QC | 990 2.3% | 10530 10.5% | 2375 2.4% | 145 0.1% | 120 0.1% | 3840 3.7% | 3575 3.6% | 30 0.0% |
| BQ-Lib | Brossard – La Prairie, QC | 1243 2.2% | 3940 3.5% | 8480 7.5% | 245 0.2% | 990 0.9% | 700 0.7% | 1930 1.7% | 210 0.2% |
| Lib-BQ | Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine, QC | 10850 23.5% | 2250 2.2% | 4435 4.3% | 3040 3.0% | 2220 2.2% | 815 0.8% | 815 0.8% | 420 0.4% |
| Lib-Cons | Lac-Saint-Louis, QC | 11424 21.5% | 3740 3.6% | 3835 3.7% | 1470 1.5% | 760 0.7% | 985 1.0% | 715 0.7% | 320 0.3% |
| Lib-BQ | Laval – Les Îles, QC | 3312 6.2% | 1870 1.7% | 745 0.7% | 3635 3.7% | 250 0.2% | 285 0.3% | 2125 1.9% | 40 0.0% |
| Lib-BQ | Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel, QC | 15933 38.4% | 1165 1.1% | 2045 2.0% | 120 0.1% | 165 0.2% | 500 0.5% | 4090 3.9% | 10 0.0% |
| BQ-Lib | Ahuntsic, QC | 834 1.7% | 2695 2.7% | 1965 2.0% | 185 0.2% | 140 0.1% | 1240 1.3% | 1795 1.8% | 20 0.0% |
| BQ-Cons | Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, QC | 16099 33.0% | 95 0.1% | 250 0.3% | 1515 1.6% | 65 0.1% | 15 0.0% | 595 0.6% | 0 0.0% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough – Rouge River, ON | 20853 45.2% | 39065 29.9% | 40625 31.1% | 110 0.1% | 9905 7.6% | 15645 13.6% | 1445 1.1% | 310 0.2% |
| Lib-Cons | Markham – Unionville, ON | 18616 35.2% | 32655 25.7% | 49545 39.0% | 325 0.3% | 3710 2.9% | 10260 9.2% | 1090 0.9% | 535 0.4% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough – Agincourt, ON | 17381 38.8% | 15045 13.5% | 50620 45.5% | 330 0.3% | 4095 3.7% | 7300 6.6% | 1005 0.9% | 775 0.7% |
| Lib-Cons | Thornhill, ON | 10929 19.4% | 8400 6.4% | 15755 12.0% | 42710 36.6% | 3820 2.9% | 3250 2.8% | 830 0.6% | 4215 3.2% |
| Lib-Cons | Bramalea – Gore – Malton, ON | 8981 18.0% | 60280 39.6% | 2250 1.5% | 265 0.2% | 2920 1.9% | 8880 7.4% | 2500 1.6% | 110 0.1% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga – Brampton South, ON | 11765 23.2% | 37975 28.0% | 11410 8.4% | 210 0.2% | 7320 5.4% | 7365 6.5% | 4570 3.4% | 1630 1.2% |
| Lib-Cons | Willowdale, ON | 14369 25.9% | 6335 4.9% | 40115 31.2% | 9050 8.4% | 2720 2.1% | 1645 1.5% | 575 0.4% | 10035 7.8% |
| Lib-Cons | Brampton West, ON | 7643 13.4% | 45500 26.8% | 2635 1.6% | 160 0.1% | 5550 3.3% | 4845 4.3% | 2315 1.4% | 255 0.2% |
| Lib-Cons | Oak Ridges – Markham, ON | 6400 8.6% | 14055 8.4% | 37185 22.1% | 1440 1.3% | 3300 2.0% | 1525 1.4% | 1135 0.7% | 1215 0.7% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga – Erindale, ON | 3328 5.6% | 27820 19.5% | 13345 9.3% | 550 0.5% | 7045 4.9% | 5005 4.2% | 2475 1.7% | 2090 1.5% |
| Lib-Cons | Brampton – Springdale, ON | 7802 16.6% | 42075 32.1% | 2910 2.2% | 235 0.2% | 3170 2.4% | 6795 5.8% | 1720 1.3% | 150 0.1% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough – Guildwood, ON | 10087 24.6% | 30855 28.6% | 3135 2.9% | 345 0.3% | 5940 5.5% | 14875 13.3% | 1240 1.2% | 335 0.3% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough Centre, ON | 11810 28.0% | 22715 21.3% | 12930 12.1% | 235 0.2% | 8805 8.3% | 9610 9.5% | 1045 1.0% | 640 0.6% |
| Lib-Cons | Etobicoke North, ON | 14146 39.3% | 34185 31.9% | 2155 2.0% | 200 0.2% | 3085 2.9% | 12310 11.1% | 1665 1.6% | 680 0.6% |
| Lib-Cons | Richmond Hill, ON | 11273 21.7% | 7880 6.4% | 28770 23.5% | 9385 8.6% | 2135 1.7% | 2040 1.9% | 630 0.5% | 3290 2.7% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga East – Cooksville, ON | 9204 20.2% | 24530 19.4% | 8260 6.5% | 240 0.2% | 8715 6.9% | 7190 5.9% | 3630 2.9% | 1435 1.1% |
| Lib-Cons | York Centre, ON | 9640 22.6% | 5405 4.8% | 4540 4.0% | 27395 24.4% | 8520 7.6% | 2565 2.3% | 2500 2.2% | 3035 2.7% |
| Lib-Cons | Don Valley West, ON | 10801 20.1% | 19170 16.5% | 10355 8.9% | 9340 8.2% | 4430 3.8% | 4235 3.7% | 585 0.5% | 2255 1.9% |
| Lib-Cons | Don Valley East, ON | 10780 24.8% | 13610 12.5% | 20295 18.7% | 1615 1.5% | 4970 4.6% | 4900 4.4% | 745 0.7% | 2475 2.3% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga – Streetsville, ON | 5792 11.1% | 25180 19.4% | 9625 7.4% | 420 0.4% | 5315 4.1% | 4495 3.8% | 2105 1.6% | 1045 0.8% |
| Lib-Cons | York West, ON | 15174 45.2% | 19140 18.5% | 5985 5.8% | 315 0.3% | 1895 1.8% | 8635 7.8% | 7350 7.1% | 440 0.4% |
| Lib-Cons | Eglinton – Lawrence, ON | 11147 22.6% | 2570 2.4% | 3520 3.2% | 24435 23.2% | 6940 6.4% | 1105 1.0% | 1095 1.0% | 880 0.8% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough Southwest, ON | 9913 23.8% | 15440 15.3% | 7645 7.6% | 300 0.3% | 7855 7.8% | 6500 6.2% | 890 0.9% | 490 0.5% |
| Lib-Cons | St. Paul's, ON | 14274 24.5% | 2705 2.5% | 4095 3.7% | 15515 14.0% | 4435 4.0% | 780 0.7% | 605 0.6% | 1055 1.0% |
| Lib-Cons | Pickering – Scarborough East, ON | 11026 21.0% | 14290 13.5% | 3730 3.5% | 275 0.3% | 4390 4.1% | 4505 4.2% | 695 0.7% | 575 0.5% |
| Lib-Cons | Vaughan, ON | 20844 33.7% | 14250 9.3% | 3615 2.4% | 630 0.6% | 2590 1.7% | 1830 1.6% | 3675 2.4% | 750 0.5% |
| Lib-Cons | Ajax – Pickering, ON | 8644 16.6% | 12945 11.1% | 2390 2.1% | 280 0.3% | 3865 3.3% | 2735 2.7% | 565 0.5% | 310 0.3% |
| Cons-Lib | Halton, ON | 1897 2.7% | 10510 7.0% | 4125 2.7% | 425 0.4% | 2435 1.6% | 990 1.0% | 820 0.5% | 1105 0.7% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga South, ON | 2130 4.1% | 8130 7.4% | 3495 3.2% | 440 0.4% | 2640 2.4% | 2220 2.0% | 975 0.9% | 735 0.7% |
| Lib-Cons | Etobicoke Centre, ON | 10807 19.2% | 7390 6.7% | 3460 3.1% | 385 0.3% | 1790 1.6% | 2510 2.3% | 845 0.8% | 2220 2.0% |
| Cons-Lib | Nepean – Carleton, ON | 19401 27.0% | 5655 4.3% | 5625 4.3% | 2245 2.1% | 1055 0.8% | 1205 1.1% | 1875 1.4% | 380 0.3% |
| Cons-Lib | Ottawa West – Nepean, ON | 5357 9.0% | 4155 3.9% | 5445 5.1% | 2745 2.5% | 1110 1.0% | 1870 1.7% | 1695 1.6% | 365 0.3% |
| Lib-Cons | Kitchener – Waterloo, ON | 12319 18.5% | 5390 4.3% | 5915 4.7% | 485 0.4% | 515 0.4% | 1840 1.6% | 1875 1.5% | 960 0.8% |
| Lib-Cons | Etobicoke – Lakeshore, ON | 4724 8.5% | 4645 4.1% | 3075 2.7% | 545 0.5% | 3570 3.1% | 1640 1.5% | 795 0.7% | 1880 1.7% |
| Lib-Cons | Ottawa South, ON | 4130 6.7% | 4395 3.8% | 4345 3.7% | 1890 1.6% | 1260 1.1% | 1450 1.2% | 1285 1.1% | 465 0.4% |
| Cons-Lib | Carleton – Mississippi Mills, ON | 22644 32.6% | 3905 3.1% | 5740 4.5% | 615 0.6% | 745 0.6% | 810 0.7% | 2015 1.6% | 395 0.3% |
| Lib-Cons | Newmarket – Aurora, ON | 4800 8.2% | 2930 2.4% | 3405 2.8% | 1710 1.6% | 1370 1.1% | 505 0.5% | 2510 2.1% | 745 0.6% |
| Lib-Cons | Oakville, ON | 744 1.2% | 5240 4.6% | 2900 2.6% | 845 0.8% | 1225 1.1% | 1230 1.1% | 505 0.4% | 1065 0.9% |
| Lib-Cons | London North Centre, ON | 6141 10.2% | 2375 2.1% | 3135 2.8% | 1215 1.1% | 640 0.6% | 625 0.6% | 1520 1.3% | 865 0.8% |
| Cons-Lib | Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale, ON | 2874 4.6% | 2295 2.1% | 2395 2.2% | 1905 1.8% | 265 0.2% | 560 0.5% | 235 0.2% | 490 0.4% |
| Lib-Cons | Kitchener Centre, ON | 5583 11.1% | 2905 2.7% | 1230 1.2% | 350 0.3% | 285 0.3% | 610 0.6% | 1890 1.8% | 300 0.3% |
| NDP-Lib | London – Fanshawe, ON | 868 1.9% | 1485 1.4% | 1105 1.0% | 170 0.2% | 730 0.7% | 290 0.3% | 1840 1.7% | 290 0.3% |
| Lib-Cons | Winnipeg South Centre, MB | 3219 7.8% | 1235 1.6% | 1285 1.7% | 6990 9.2% | 1210 1.6% | 265 0.3% | 250 0.3% | 315 0.4% |
| Cons-Lib | Kildonan – St. Paul, MB | 3927 9.7% | 1375 1.7% | 535 0.7% | 3205 4.2% | 3095 3.8% | 125 0.2% | 295 0.4% | 15 0.0% |
| Lib-Cons | Vancouver South, BC | 9135 20.9% | 17990 15.1% | 51940 43.7% | 1410 1.3% | 7865 6.6% | 2815 2.5% | 3430 2.9% | 1425 1.2% |
| Lib-NDP | Vancouver Kingsway, BC | 4592 9.9% | 7775 6.5% | 47605 40.1% | 1135 1.0% | 11930 10.0% | 3310 2.9% | 5685 4.8% | 1015 0.9% |
| Lib-Cons | Richmond, BC | 1808 4.1% | 4930 4.3% | 56940 50.2% | 2230 2.1% | 5770 5.1% | 1050 1.0% | 800 0.7% | 955 0.8% |
| Lib-NDP | Newton – North Delta, BC | 1000 2.3% | 50510 42.7% | 5975 5.0% | 255 0.2% | 3510 3.0% | 4595 4.1% | 1275 1.1% | 430 0.4% |
| Cons-Lib | Fleetwood – Port Kells, BC | 828 1.9% | 31005 25.3% | 10040 8.2% | 105 0.1% | 5735 4.7% | 2000 2.0% | 4135 3.4% | 4695 3.8% |
| NDP-Lib | Burnaby – New Westminster, BC | 3971 8.9% | 12285 10.4% | 29430 25.0% | 235 0.2% | 6970 5.9% | 1830 1.7% | 1355 1.2% | 4205 3.6% |
| NDP-Cons | Surrey North, BC | 6443 18.1% | 33655 30.3% | 4965 4.5% | 110 0.1% | 7590 6.8% | 4465 4.2% | 3555 3.2% | 1620 1.5% |
| Lib-Cons | Vancouver Quadra, BC | 11811 20.3% | 2155 1.8% | 28070 23.6% | 4195 3.8% | 1030 0.9% | 445 0.4% | 455 0.4% | 3245 2.7% |
| Cons-Lib | Delta – Richmond East, BC | 8068 16.6% | 10935 10.4% | 20435 19.4% | 915 0.9% | 4390 4.2% | 1290 1.3% | 760 0.7% | 545 0.5% |
| Cons-Lib | Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam, BC | 6827 14.1% | 4245 3.7% | 17420 15.0% | 250 0.2% | 2965 2.6% | 1135 1.0% | 1050 0.9% | 5535 4.8% |
| Lib-NDP | Vancouver Centre, BC | 8639 15.1% | 2805 2.3% | 13515 11.1% | 2440 2.3% | 2345 1.9% | 295 0.3% | 950 0.8% | 3545 2.9% |
| NDP-Cons | New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC | 2933 5.8% | 4290 3.9% | 11460 10.4% | 465 0.4% | 3405 3.1% | 730 0.7% | 660 0.6% | 3630 3.3% |
| Lib-Cons | North Vancouver, BC | 3336 5.6% | 3715 3.1% | 7185 5.9% | 935 0.8% | 3200 2.6% | 400 0.3% | 335 0.3% | 3285 2.7% |
| Lib-Cons | West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC | 976 1.5% | 3100 2.4% | 4350 3.4% | 1215 1.0% | 1380 1.1% | 225 0.2% | 345 0.3% | 1585 1.2% |
| Cons-NDP | Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission, BC | 2721 5.2% | 4730 4.0% | 2455 2.1% | 110 0.1% | 1240 1.0% | 290 0.3% | 740 0.6% | 1020 0.9% |
I do not claim that every seat on the above list is or ought to be a target of the Conservatives' ethnic outreach strategy. However, they will no doubt be measuring the success of their strategy on the basis of advances or retreats in their vote in seats such as these.
It is a little ironic, and worth noting, that Kenney's own riding of Calgary Southeast, AB does not rank in the top 50 in any of these categories, and is #120/308 in the percentage of visible minority residents.
Labels: Census Data, Conservatives, Ethnic Communities
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
6:01 AM
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