What ridings would Kenney be targetting?
In Monday's Hill Times Abbas Rana reports further details of the Conservative outreach strategy to ethnic communities being spearheaded by Jason Kenney (long-time Conservative M.P. for Calgary Southeast, AB), and recalls an earlier February story by Tonda MacCharles of the Toronto Star outlining the Kenney's strategic targets. As MacCharles wrote in February:
Rana adds another wrinkle, reporting that "Conservative strategists are eyeing 30 ridings across the country where they lost by five per cent of the vote and where ethnic groups make up a large enough percentage of voters to swing the result in the next federal election" [emphasis added].
Well, now that we have the 2006 Census Data available, and with an eye on the Percent Margin from the 2006 General election, how well can we guess which ridings these might be?
First of all, Rana can't be right because there were only 14 ridings which the Conservatives lost by fewer than 5 percentage points, 12 of which met the criteria that the number of people who identify themselves as visible minorities exceeded the previous margin of victory.
We don't see many events in Northern Saskatchewan, Vancouver Island North or West Nova on Kenney's schedule as reported in the Hill Times story, so let's assume we have to cast a wider net.
Suppose instead that the criterion is ridings lost in 2006 by less than 5% by anyone, but which were not won by a Conservative (to see the full list of ridings won by less than 5%, use the Party Pundit Query called "Closest contests (MargPct <= 0.05)" found on the "Search the Database" page). This brings us up to 31 ridings, of which 26 report a greater percentage of visible minorities than their 2006 Percent Margin of victory:
But only 2 of these are in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 2 are in London, and only another 4 (Brant, Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, Oakville and Welland) are even in the broad vicinity.
Instead then, suppose we switch gears and examine the 50 ridings having the highest percentage of identified visible minorities, regardless of the margin of victory. Would this give us a better idea of Kenney's priorities?
Now we see a lot more GTA ridings, although certainly not many with a narrow margin last time out. In fact only one GTA riding was decided by less than 5% in 2006 (Parkdale – High Park), and only 4 ridings in the entire GTA were decided by less than 10% (including Beaches – East York, Trinity – Spadina, and Etobicoke – Lakeshore). Still a number of these ridings are good candidates for Kenney's list.
Next, we'll begin looking at ridings that rate highly in the nine ethnic groups said to be of most particular interest in the Conservative outreach programme.
This is ethnic outreach with a purpose. Conservative strategists are eyeing 30 ridings across Canada that were lost by 5 per cent of the vote and where ethnic groups make up a large enough percentage of voters to swing the result next time. In the GTA, 16 ridings have been identified.
Nine ethnic groups in particular are coming in for special attention: Koreans, Chinese (more often than not Cantonese-speaking émigrés from Hong Kong), Jews, South Asians, Persians, Poles, Jamaicans, Filipinos, and Vietnamese.
Rana adds another wrinkle, reporting that "Conservative strategists are eyeing 30 ridings across the country where they lost by five per cent of the vote and where ethnic groups make up a large enough percentage of voters to swing the result in the next federal election" [emphasis added].
Well, now that we have the 2006 Census Data available, and with an eye on the Percent Margin from the 2006 General election, how well can we guess which ridings these might be?
First of all, Rana can't be right because there were only 14 ridings which the Conservatives lost by fewer than 5 percentage points, 12 of which met the criteria that the number of people who identify themselves as visible minorities exceeded the previous margin of victory.
| Contest | Riding | % Marg | Raw Marg | # Vis Min | % Vis Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib-Cons | Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River, SK | 0.27% | 67 | *355 | 0.52% |
| Lib-Cons | Brant, ON | 0.97% | 582 | *6715 | 5.44% |
| NDP-Cons | Vancouver Island North, BC | 1.09% | 616 | *3415 | 3.03% |
| Lib-Cons | West Nova, NS | 1.13% | 512 | *1815 | 2.14% |
| Lib-Cons | Oakville, ON | 1.25% | 744 | *17190 | 15.18% |
| Lib-Cons | West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC | 1.53% | 976 | *17905 | 13.97% |
| Lib-Cons | Huron – Bruce, ON | 1.82% | 971 | *1680 | 1.63% |
| Lib-Cons | London West, ON | 2.18% | 1329 | *14670 | 12.52% |
| Lib-Cons | Madawaska – Restigouche, NB | 2.45% | 885 | 520 | 0.85% |
| Lib-Cons | Saint Boniface, MB | 3.58% | 1524 | *8290 | 9.91% |
| Lib-Cons | Saint John, NB | 3.62% | 1449 | *3375 | 4.18% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga South, ON | 4.09% | 2130 | *26280 | 23.90% |
| Lib-Cons | Richmond, BC | 4.14% | 1808 | *75995 | 66.94% |
| Lib-Cons | Random – Burin – St. George's, NL | 4.73% | 1420 | 550 | 0.78% |
We don't see many events in Northern Saskatchewan, Vancouver Island North or West Nova on Kenney's schedule as reported in the Hill Times story, so let's assume we have to cast a wider net.
Suppose instead that the criterion is ridings lost in 2006 by less than 5% by anyone, but which were not won by a Conservative (to see the full list of ridings won by less than 5%, use the Party Pundit Query called "Closest contests (MargPct <= 0.05)" found on the "Search the Database" page). This brings us up to 31 ridings, of which 26 report a greater percentage of visible minorities than their 2006 Percent Margin of victory:
| Contest | Riding | % Marg | Raw Marg | # Vis Min | % Vis Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib-Cons | Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River, SK | 0.27% | 67 | *355 | 0.52% |
| NDP-Lib | Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, ON | 0.87% | 466 | *14695 | 12.68% |
| Lib-Cons | Brant, ON | 0.97% | 582 | *6715 | 5.44% |
| Lib-NDP | Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON | 1.05% | 408 | *2195 | 2.69% |
| NDP-Cons | Vancouver Island North, BC | 1.09% | 616 | *3415 | 3.03% |
| Lib-Cons | West Nova, NS | 1.13% | 512 | *1815 | 2.14% |
| Lib-Cons | Oakville, ON | 1.25% | 744 | *17190 | 15.18% |
| Lib-Cons | West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC | 1.53% | 976 | *17905 | 13.97% |
| BQ-Lib | Ahuntsic, QC | 1.67% | 834 | *25225 | 25.70% |
| Lib-NDP | Thunder Bay – Rainy River, ON | 1.71% | 658 | *1355 | 1.61% |
| Lib-Cons | Huron – Bruce, ON | 1.82% | 971 | *1680 | 1.63% |
| NDP-Lib | London – Fanshawe, ON | 1.86% | 868 | *16910 | 15.90% |
| BQ-Lib | Brossard – La Prairie, QC | 2.16% | 1243 | *26130 | 23.06% |
| Lib-Cons | London West, ON | 2.18% | 1329 | *14670 | 12.52% |
| BQ-Lib | Papineau, QC | 2.27% | 990 | *36505 | 36.37% |
| Lib-NDP | Newton – North Delta, BC | 2.28% | 1000 | *67020 | 56.62% |
| Lib-Cons | Madawaska – Restigouche, NB | 2.45% | 885 | 520 | 0.85% |
| NDP-Lib | Burnaby – Douglas, BC | 2.55% | 1244 | *57705 | 51.89% |
| Lib-BQ | Hull – Aylmer, QC | 3.32% | 1788 | *10595 | 9.67% |
| Lib-BQ | Honoré-Mercier, QC | 3.40% | 1743 | *22005 | 21.12% |
| Lib-Cons | Saint Boniface, MB | 3.58% | 1524 | *8290 | 9.91% |
| Lib-Cons | Saint John, NB | 3.62% | 1449 | *3375 | 4.18% |
| Lib-NDP | Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, BC | 3.64% | 2166 | *9670 | 8.06% |
| Lib-NDP | Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing, ON | 3.67% | 1408 | 980 | 1.27% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga South, ON | 4.09% | 2130 | *26280 | 23.90% |
| Lib-Cons | Richmond, BC | 4.14% | 1808 | *75995 | 66.94% |
| NDP-Lib | Parkdale – High Park, ON | 4.47% | 2301 | *26150 | 26.13% |
| Lib-NDP | Nickel Belt, ON | 4.61% | 2107 | 815 | 0.92% |
| NDP-Lib | Sault Ste. Marie, ON | 4.66% | 2154 | 1060 | 1.20% |
| Lib-Cons | Random – Burin – St. George's, NL | 4.73% | 1420 | 550 | 0.78% |
| Lib-NDP | Welland, ON | 4.86% | 2775 | *4880 | 4.37% |
But only 2 of these are in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 2 are in London, and only another 4 (Brant, Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, Oakville and Welland) are even in the broad vicinity.
Instead then, suppose we switch gears and examine the 50 ridings having the highest percentage of identified visible minorities, regardless of the margin of victory. Would this give us a better idea of Kenney's priorities?
| Contest | Riding | % Marg | Raw Marg | # Vis Min | % Vis Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough – Rouge River, ON | 45.18% | 20853 | *117085 | 89.68% |
| Lib-Cons | Markham – Unionville, ON | 35.16% | 18616 | *98860 | 77.89% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough – Agincourt, ON | 38.76% | 17381 | *85250 | 76.68% |
| Lib-Cons | Vancouver South, BC | 20.91% | 9135 | *89595 | 75.35% |
| Lib-Cons | Etobicoke North, ON | 39.27% | 14146 | *76020 | 70.97% |
| Lib-NDP | Vancouver Kingsway, BC | 9.95% | 4592 | *81385 | 68.52% |
| Lib-Cons | York West, ON | 45.19% | 15174 | *70425 | 67.98% |
| Lib-Cons | Richmond, BC | 4.14% | 1808 | *75995 | 66.94% |
| Lib-Cons | Bramalea – Gore – Malton, ON | 17.96% | 8981 | *97810 | 64.22% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough Centre, ON | 28.03% | 11810 | *65125 | 61.17% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough – Guildwood, ON | 24.56% | 10087 | *65760 | 61.03% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga – Brampton South, ON | 23.19% | 11765 | *82020 | 60.45% |
| Lib-Cons | Willowdale, ON | 25.92% | 14369 | *76955 | 59.84% |
| Lib-Cons | Don Valley East, ON | 24.83% | 10780 | *62020 | 57.00% |
| Lib-NDP | Newton – North Delta, BC | 2.28% | 1000 | *67020 | 56.62% |
| Lib-Cons | Brampton – Springdale, ON | 16.57% | 7802 | *74010 | 56.52% |
| NDP-Lib | Burnaby – New Westminster, BC | 8.86% | 3971 | *64075 | 54.46% |
| Lib-Cons | Brampton West, ON | 13.41% | 7643 | *91555 | 54.01% |
| NDP-Cons | Surrey North, BC | 18.05% | 6443 | *59800 | 53.88% |
| NDP-Lib | Burnaby – Douglas, BC | 2.55% | 1244 | *57705 | 51.89% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga – Erindale, ON | 5.55% | 3328 | *74135 | 51.88% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga East – Cooksville, ON | 20.20% | 9204 | *64530 | 51.17% |
| Lib-NDP | York South – Weston, ON | 35.79% | 14346 | *57785 | 50.90% |
| Cons-Lib | Fleetwood – Port Kells, BC | 1.90% | 828 | *61560 | 50.24% |
| Cons-Lib | Calgary Northeast, AB | 42.80% | 17928 | *62405 | 48.51% |
| Lib-Cons | Scarborough Southwest, ON | 23.79% | 9913 | *49040 | 48.44% |
| Lib-Cons | Mississauga – Streetsville, ON | 11.13% | 5792 | *62235 | 47.95% |
| Lib-Cons | Richmond Hill, ON | 21.70% | 11273 | *58105 | 47.55% |
| NDP-Lib | Vancouver East, BC | 33.15% | 14020 | *49945 | 47.49% |
| Lib-Cons | Don Valley West, ON | 20.08% | 10801 | *50005 | 43.09% |
| Lib-Cons | Oak Ridges – Markham, ON | 8.58% | 6400 | *70070 | 41.66% |
| Lib-BQ | Saint-Laurent – Cartierville, QC | 45.27% | 19220 | *44500 | 41.48% |
| Lib-NDP | Toronto Centre, ON | 28.48% | 16838 | *48435 | 40.98% |
| Cons-Lib | Delta – Richmond East, BC | 16.56% | 8068 | *42435 | 40.28% |
| Lib-Cons | Pickering – Scarborough East, ON | 20.96% | 11026 | *40230 | 37.99% |
| Lib-Cons | York Centre, ON | 22.59% | 9640 | *41840 | 37.11% |
| NDP-Lib | Trinity – Spadina, ON | 5.89% | 3681 | *41165 | 36.48% |
| BQ-Lib | Papineau, QC | 2.27% | 990 | *36505 | 36.37% |
| Lib-Cons | Ajax – Pickering, ON | 16.65% | 8644 | *42360 | 36.34% |
| Lib-BQ | Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel, QC | 38.43% | 15933 | *36555 | 34.98% |
| Cons-Lib | Calgary – Nose Hill, AB | 51.38% | 28372 | *45685 | 34.97% |
| Cons-Lib | Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam, BC | 14.06% | 6827 | *40295 | 34.79% |
| Lib-Cons | Mount Royal, QC | 47.65% | 17627 | *33425 | 34.49% |
| Lib-Cons | Vancouver Quadra, BC | 20.25% | 11811 | *40615 | 34.19% |
| NDP-Lib | Toronto – Danforth, ON | 14.19% | 7156 | *34485 | 33.91% |
| Lib-Cons | Thornhill, ON | 19.39% | 10929 | *43930 | 33.33% |
| Lib-NDP | Davenport, ON | 19.26% | 7491 | *34455 | 33.15% |
| NDP-Lib | Winnipeg North, MB | 36.07% | 9830 | *25415 | 32.31% |
| Cons-Lib | Edmonton – Mill Woods – Beaumont, AB | 37.47% | 17382 | *35335 | 31.44% |
| Lib-NDP | Beaches – East York, ON | 5.43% | 2778 | *32595 | 31.32% |
Now we see a lot more GTA ridings, although certainly not many with a narrow margin last time out. In fact only one GTA riding was decided by less than 5% in 2006 (Parkdale – High Park), and only 4 ridings in the entire GTA were decided by less than 10% (including Beaches – East York, Trinity – Spadina, and Etobicoke – Lakeshore). Still a number of these ridings are good candidates for Kenney's list.
Next, we'll begin looking at ridings that rate highly in the nine ethnic groups said to be of most particular interest in the Conservative outreach programme.
Labels: Census Data, Conservatives, Ethnic Communities
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
2:28 PM
2 Comments:
Hi Alice --
Very nice analysis, as usual. I'll be so bold as to call attention to some related number crunching I did that looked at some of the StatsCan categories of visible minorities, i.e. Filipino, Black and so on. Now I didn't make the leap to correlate high or low populations of individual groups of visible minorities with political preference but, as I eyeball those numbers, it seems clear that if the Conservative challenge is to win more seats in urban areas -- namely Toronto, Montreal and downtown Vancouver -- that will necessarily mean finding more support among groups of Filipino, Chinese, and South Asian Canadians ...
Hi David,
Welcome back from PEI. I'm working on a very slow dialup connection from somewhere near Parham, ON, and did not get a chance to do a thorough scour of the web before posting this. I do remember your May review based on Census Metropolitan Areas.
I'll take a closer look again before posting Part II of my look at the probably Conservative riding targets. Thanks for the reminder and pointer.
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