Introducing the By-election Party Scorecard
This afternoon, I’m introducing a scorecard to keep track of the parties’ performance on by-election night Monday.
Of course, winning a seat is the primary objective of a political party in any first-past-the-post system. However, pundits would get very bored if that were the only criteria for ranking things.
Therefore, I’ve compiled a summary table that shows at a glance where gains and losses are made on four other metrics as well: 2nd place finishes, percent of the vote, raw vote, and the number of seats in which a candidate achieved a sufficient vote percentage to become eligible for a rebate of election expenses (one metric, believe me, that the parties look at *very* closely … especially the ones for whom fund-raising and campaign finance is a major preoccupation).
The Party Scorecard table will appear at the top of the home page here (i.e., the blog’s main address) throughout the by-elections result period, and will stay as “live” as I can keep it that night. Then I’ll retire it to a blog-post for historical reference.
For an example of what you’ll find there, here’s what the Party Scorecard looked like for the past two sets of by-elections.
| 2007 By-election(s) | Lib | NDP | Grn | BQ | Cons | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote Pct | 14.2% (-3.0%) |
17.1% (+8.0%) |
2.6% (-1.7%) |
28.1% (-16.2%) |
37.0% (+12.2%) |
1.0% (+0.7%) |
| Seats | (-1) | 1 (+1) |
1 (-1) |
1 (+1) |
||
| 2nds | 1 (+1) |
1 (–) |
1 (-1) |
|||
| Rebate Eligib. |
1 (–) |
1 (–) |
3 (–) |
2 (-1) |
||
| Raw Vote | 12104 (-10,076) |
14587 (+2,729) |
2197 (-3,374) |
23891 (-33,311) |
31480 (-474) |
882 (+458) |
A few things jump out of the 2007 By-election score-card: (i) the Conservatives although increasing their percentage of the vote, actually lost raw votes across the three ridings (Outremont, Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean, and Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot, all in Québec), and in fact dropped below the rebate threshold in Outremont, (ii) the NDP was the only party to increase both its raw vote and vote percentage, and (iii) the strong showing of the Green Party from the previous set of by-elections in 2006 (held in London North Centre, ON and Repentigny, QC) was not repeated in the 2007 group.
| 2006 By-elections | Lib | NDP | Grn | BQ | Cons | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote Pct | 22.0% (-3.0%) |
10.9% (-5.1%) |
14.2% (+9.9%) |
29.8% (-0.3%) |
21.9% (-2.3%) |
1.2% (+0.8%) |
| Seats | 1 (–) |
1 (–) |
||||
| 2nds | 1 (+1) |
1 (-1) |
||||
| Rebate Eligib. |
1 (–) |
1 (–) |
1 (+1) |
1 (–) |
2 (–) |
|
| Raw Vote | 15225 (-13,731) |
7552 (-11,056) |
9845 (+4,803) |
20635 (-14,323) |
15149 (-12,943) |
836 (+393) |
This last point is important to underscore, because by-elections are so highly volatile … they are ridings without incumbents, where parties are able to focus as much or as little attention on them as they like, and where the set of ridings in play is small and random and not usually representative of the political terrain as a whole.
[UPDATE: Blogger sucks at tables. I hope they fix that soon. :-(]
Tags: March 17 2008 By-elections, Nov 27 2006 By-elections, Party Scorecard, Sept 17 2007 By-elections
Byelections are usually without incumbents, but there are occasions, such as when Sheila Copps, Liberal MP, who had been the incumbent ran in her Hamilton riding because of the broken Liberal promise to kill the GST.
Ooh, good point. The exception that proves the rule.
The date of that by-election slightly predates the dataset current available here, but you can find those election results by going to the old Hamilton East riding, and then clicking on the Library of Parliament icon to find their History of Federal Ridings since 1867 (or clicking here, and scrolling down to nearly the end).
It was a by-election with an incumbent alright … but not very volatile in the end, as Copps took on 11 opponents (including the current M.P., Wayne Marston), and still won her seat back handily.
Thanks for the great comment.