The By-Elections By the Numbers I - Toronto Centre
Toronto Centre is a core urban seat, the most populous in south Toronto and among the top fifth of Ontario ridings in population, according to the 2001 census. It also has the fourth-highest population density of any riding in the country. Over 50% of its population over 15 years is single (never married); it ranked the highest of any riding in Ontario in this category in 2001, and the lowest in legally married couples. Of families in the riding, over 20% are head by single-parents (only 8 ridings in Ontario have a higher percentage), and 9 in 10 of them are headed by women.
Some 43% of the riding population were immigrants in 2001, and another 3% were non-permanent residents (only 4 ridings in Canada had a higher percentage). 41% of the riding population belonged to a visible minority population; the biggest groups were Black (9.1%), South Asian (8.6%), Chinese (8.3%) and Filipino (5.2%). Most reported no religious affiliation (27%) (only 3 ridings in Central Canada have a higher percentage), followed by Catholics (26%) and then Protestants (22%), and there are two and a half times more Muslim worshippers than Jewish.
37% had a mother-tongue other than English or French, although 82% know English, and another 16% know English or French. Non-official languages are spoken in the home, either combined with English (18%) or on their own (13%), however the vast majority speak English at work (88%, plus another 6% who speak English as well as another language in the workplace).
The riding is well-educated; it has the 5th highest percentage of university graduates in the country (44%), and the 6th lowest percentage of residents having completed less than high school graduation (16%). While most people work in Sales and service occupations (21.5%), Business, finance and administrative occupations (20.1%) and management (13.4%), the riding also boasts the 13th highest percentage of social science, education, government service and religion workers (12.5%), and the fourth highest percent of workers in art, culture, recreation and sport (9.0%).
At 7.8% Toronto Centre had the highest unemployment rate in south Toronto in the 2001 census, although nationally it ranked 109 out of 308. It had the third-highest average individual income in the country however ($52,484), the third-highest average family income ($124,082), and at $404,277 the 5th highest average dwelling value, but also ranked 8th in the country for highest percentage of tenants at 73%.
Since 1997 (the period covered by this database so far), the Liberals' Bill Graham held the seat (and/or its Toronto Centre-Rosedale predecessor) with 50% of the vote or more. A strong campaign by former Conservative M.P. David MacDonald, by then running for the NDP, gave that party slightly over 20% in 1997 (he had just become romantically involved with NDP Leader Alexa McDonough at the time). NDP support dipped to 11% in 2000, but doubled to 24% in 2004 and 2006 under Urban health analyst and housing advocate Michael Shapcott, likely on the strength of the former Progressive Conservative vote, which was never fully captured by the new Conservative Party, and also perhaps the vote obtained by maverick Paul Hellyer who obtained 3% of the vote in 2000 running for the Canadian Action Party. The Conservative party grew its strength over the 4 elections, but has not yet attained a level of support equal to the combined support of the former Reform/Canadian Alliance vote plus the former PC vote (totalling 27-28% in 1997 and 2000), in spite of running a very well financed campaign in 2006 (Lewis Reford raised over $100k locally before and during the 2006 campaign). All three of the major parties spent close to the limit in 2004 and 2006, and raised enough money locally to break even, with the exception of incumbent Liberal MP Bill Graham in 2006, who received $40K from his party's central campaign in addition to the $40K raised locally.
Note that the Green vote rose even as the NDP vote increased, so it appears the Green Party benefitted here from part of the former PC vote; rising to 5.2% of the vote in 2006 under Chris Tindal, who is running for his party again in the current by-election. Of note, the 1997 Green candidate in this riding, Jim Harris, had just lost a leadership race to Joan Russow in April that year, but went on to become his party's leader six years later in 2003.
Of the current slate of candidates only Tindal and Liz White (of the Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada) have run in the riding before. However Liberal candidate and former NDP Premier Bob Rae was first elected to the House of Commons in a 1978 by-election in the neighbouring riding of Broadview (now Toronto Danforth), and was reelected in 1980 before departing for Queen's Park as NDP Leader in 1982. The Conservative candidate Don Meredith, a pentacostal pastor and landscaping contractor, was nominated by his party after it fired candidate Mark A.A. Warner late last year. The NDP has nominated immigration lawyer and gay muslim activist El-Farouk Khaki. First-time candidate Doug Plumb is nominated to run for the Canadian Action Party. The riding is held provincially by Liberal Health Minister George Smitherman who was reelected handily last fall.
Some 43% of the riding population were immigrants in 2001, and another 3% were non-permanent residents (only 4 ridings in Canada had a higher percentage). 41% of the riding population belonged to a visible minority population; the biggest groups were Black (9.1%), South Asian (8.6%), Chinese (8.3%) and Filipino (5.2%). Most reported no religious affiliation (27%) (only 3 ridings in Central Canada have a higher percentage), followed by Catholics (26%) and then Protestants (22%), and there are two and a half times more Muslim worshippers than Jewish.
37% had a mother-tongue other than English or French, although 82% know English, and another 16% know English or French. Non-official languages are spoken in the home, either combined with English (18%) or on their own (13%), however the vast majority speak English at work (88%, plus another 6% who speak English as well as another language in the workplace).
The riding is well-educated; it has the 5th highest percentage of university graduates in the country (44%), and the 6th lowest percentage of residents having completed less than high school graduation (16%). While most people work in Sales and service occupations (21.5%), Business, finance and administrative occupations (20.1%) and management (13.4%), the riding also boasts the 13th highest percentage of social science, education, government service and religion workers (12.5%), and the fourth highest percent of workers in art, culture, recreation and sport (9.0%).
At 7.8% Toronto Centre had the highest unemployment rate in south Toronto in the 2001 census, although nationally it ranked 109 out of 308. It had the third-highest average individual income in the country however ($52,484), the third-highest average family income ($124,082), and at $404,277 the 5th highest average dwelling value, but also ranked 8th in the country for highest percentage of tenants at 73%.
Since 1997 (the period covered by this database so far), the Liberals' Bill Graham held the seat (and/or its Toronto Centre-Rosedale predecessor) with 50% of the vote or more. A strong campaign by former Conservative M.P. David MacDonald, by then running for the NDP, gave that party slightly over 20% in 1997 (he had just become romantically involved with NDP Leader Alexa McDonough at the time). NDP support dipped to 11% in 2000, but doubled to 24% in 2004 and 2006 under Urban health analyst and housing advocate Michael Shapcott, likely on the strength of the former Progressive Conservative vote, which was never fully captured by the new Conservative Party, and also perhaps the vote obtained by maverick Paul Hellyer who obtained 3% of the vote in 2000 running for the Canadian Action Party. The Conservative party grew its strength over the 4 elections, but has not yet attained a level of support equal to the combined support of the former Reform/Canadian Alliance vote plus the former PC vote (totalling 27-28% in 1997 and 2000), in spite of running a very well financed campaign in 2006 (Lewis Reford raised over $100k locally before and during the 2006 campaign). All three of the major parties spent close to the limit in 2004 and 2006, and raised enough money locally to break even, with the exception of incumbent Liberal MP Bill Graham in 2006, who received $40K from his party's central campaign in addition to the $40K raised locally.
Note that the Green vote rose even as the NDP vote increased, so it appears the Green Party benefitted here from part of the former PC vote; rising to 5.2% of the vote in 2006 under Chris Tindal, who is running for his party again in the current by-election. Of note, the 1997 Green candidate in this riding, Jim Harris, had just lost a leadership race to Joan Russow in April that year, but went on to become his party's leader six years later in 2003.
Of the current slate of candidates only Tindal and Liz White (of the Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada) have run in the riding before. However Liberal candidate and former NDP Premier Bob Rae was first elected to the House of Commons in a 1978 by-election in the neighbouring riding of Broadview (now Toronto Danforth), and was reelected in 1980 before departing for Queen's Park as NDP Leader in 1982. The Conservative candidate Don Meredith, a pentacostal pastor and landscaping contractor, was nominated by his party after it fired candidate Mark A.A. Warner late last year. The NDP has nominated immigration lawyer and gay muslim activist El-Farouk Khaki. First-time candidate Doug Plumb is nominated to run for the Canadian Action Party. The riding is held provincially by Liberal Health Minister George Smitherman who was reelected handily last fall.
| 1997 GE | 2000 GE | 2004 GE | 2006 GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | 22,945 (49.2%) | 26,203 (55.3%) | 30,336 (56.5%) | 30,874 (52.2%) |
| NDP | 9,597 (20.6%) | 5,300 (11.2%) | 12,747 (23.8%) | 14,036 (23.7%) |
| Cons/CA/Ref | 3,646 (7.8%) | 5,058 (10.7%) | 7,936 (14.8%) | 10,763 (18.2%) |
| PC | 8,993 (19.3%) | 8,149 (17.2%) | ||
| Grn | 577 (1.2%) | 2,097 (3.9%) | 3,080 (5.2%) | |
| Ind | ||||
| Oth | 884 (1.9%) | 2649 (5.6%) | 547 (1.0%) | 359 (0.6%) |
| TOTAL | 47,065 | 47,605 | 53,905 | 59,364 |
| ELECTORS | 70,234 (67.0%TO) | 83,243 (57.2%TO) | 85,165 (63.3%TO) | 89,230 (66.5%TO) |
Labels: March 17 2008 By-elections, Toronto Centre
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
12:11 AM
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