Advance Poll Turnout High in Vancouver Quadra
Elections Canada has just released preliminary advanced voting numbers for the four by-election ridings, and there appears to be a lot of interest in the race in Vancouver Quadra. The level of advanced voting there is higher, relative to advanced voting in the last general election, than what is being reported for the other 3 ridings.
Pundits will be asking whether campaigns are making special efforts to "get out the vote" to the advance polls, and whether the advanced voting is taking place at any one place more than others (e.g., the University of B.C.). Since overall turnout is usually lower during by-elections than in general elections, a higher-than-expected advance voting turnout in one riding certainly makes that riding worth watching closely come Monday.
| Electoral district | # advance poll voters 2008 By | # advance poll voters 2006 GE | % of 2006 GE adv vote | Electors 2008 By | % of Electors 2008 By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | 7,470 | 19,739 | 37.8% | 308,743 | 2.4% |
| Desnethé– Missinippi– Churchill River | 850 | 2,365 | 35.9% | 41,682 | 2.0% |
| Toronto Centre | 1,721 | 5,220 | 33.0% | 87,898 | 2.0% |
| Vancouver Quadra | 3,437 | 6,097 | 56.4% | 85,512 | 4.0% |
| Willowdale | 1,462 | 6,057 | 24.1% | 93,651 | 1.6% |
Pundits will be asking whether campaigns are making special efforts to "get out the vote" to the advance polls, and whether the advanced voting is taking place at any one place more than others (e.g., the University of B.C.). Since overall turnout is usually lower during by-elections than in general elections, a higher-than-expected advance voting turnout in one riding certainly makes that riding worth watching closely come Monday.
Labels: March 17 2008 By-elections, Turnout, Vancouver Quadra
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
1:56 PM
3 Comments:
Here's my guess.
There are ever more people who use the advance polls for purely convenience reasons [they could vote on eday].
I'm sure surveying them would find that they are the most highly motivated voters, pay the most attention to politics, etc. And it stands to reason those kind of people will be in Quadra in spades.
Get out the vote is also very effective with the use of advanced polls. In fact, it's the best way to get supporters to the polls who are the opposite of
the above.
But I'm guessing there isn't much of that- and if we saw it anywhere it would
be in Desnethe.
I went a bit further and looked at advanced voting for the 2007 by-elections. They averaged 4% of electors as well, meaning that Quadra is in line with that number, while the other three ridings are running about half.
Over the weekend, I will see if I can get a better data-set so we can see what conclusions could be drawn.
I must say I'm curious given all the stories in the Ubyssey about eligibility of students to vote (and the new identification requirements) to see whether the voting occurred there as a result of some big push by one or other of the parties.
Could be that it's March break in Vancouver and a lot of people would have known that they'd be away. But maybe not, if the advance polls are in line with previous elections.
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