Turn-out Matters Too
A lot of the commentary on the situation in the by-election riding of
Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River has focussed on the tight margin in the 2006 general election race (67 votes, or 0.4 votes per poll) as compared with the 2004 general election (here are this morning's examples) .
But margin is not the whole story, as demonstrated below in a summary results table of DMCR and its predecessor riding Churchill River.
Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River has focussed on the tight margin in the 2006 general election race (67 votes, or 0.4 votes per poll) as compared with the 2004 general election (here are this morning's examples) .
But margin is not the whole story, as demonstrated below in a summary results table of DMCR and its predecessor riding Churchill River.
| 1997 GE | 2000 GE | 2004 GE | 2006 GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | 5,994 (28.3%) | 9,856 (41.6%) | 5,815 (29.8%) | 10,191 (41.2%) |
| NDP | 7,288 (34.4%) | 5,141 (21.7%) | 3,910 (20.0%) | 3,787 (15.3%) |
| Cons/CA/Ref | 6,750 (31.8%) | 7,679 (32.4%) | 7,279 (37.2%) | 10,124 (40.9%) |
| PC | 1,077 (5.1%) | 755 (3.2%) | ||
| Grn | 539 (2.8%) | 534 (2.2%) | ||
| Ind | 1,923 (9.8%) | |||
| Oth | 143 (0.6%) | |||
| TOTAL | 21,109 | 23,574 | 19,466 | 24,636 |
| ELECTORS | 37,059 (57.2%TO) | 39,807 (59.5%TO) | 41,216 (47.4%TO) | 42,315 (58.4%TO) |
The Conservatives won in 2004 with a higher margin (8.7 votes per poll), but an uncharacteristically low turn-out (47.4% vs. an average of around 58%).
This distinction should be important to pundits wanting to handicap the race during the current set of by-elections. It's anyone's guess what effect the current controversy will have on the turn-out, but whichever party guesses right (or influences it to their benefit) will clearly have the advantage.
Labels: Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill, March 17 2008 By-elections
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
6:13 AM
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